Ontario Measures Not Enough to Flatten the Coronavirus Curve Now
Note: Since this writing March 16th, the curve in Ontario had started to come down on March 20. But as of March 22nd, the rate is back up, at 1,65 additional cases every two days.
Confirming that since a March 16 analysis, on March 22nd, the progression of Coronavirus 19 in Ontario & Projections show current measures are insufficient to really reduce the rate of contamination.
Despite seeing the China, S. Korea and Europe examples in December and January, the province of Ontario, led by populist Doug Ford, has not taken adequate measures to prevent the exponential growth of the number of Coronavirus 19 cases.
After a very slow start between January 25 th and March 8th, where 31 cases of Coronavirus were identified, as in China, Italy, Iran and France, the rate of growth accelerated. On March 16, there are 177 declared cases in Ontario, ie, a tripling of cases from the 59 March 12. That’s a 200% growth rate every 4 days since March 12th. Tripling March 16th’s number March 20th, I got 531 cases. As of March 22nd, the actual number of cases is 425, 1,65 times higher than the 258 cases found March 20th, two days before.
As you can see, the curve has not started to trend downward. Current measures will make the crisis last longer than with more drastic containment or reorganization measures.
As of March 16, social distancing has begun. There is a start to systematic testing at Toronto’s busy airport or in hospitals, travelers are told to go into voluntary quanrantine — with their families, most likely!-, and travelers from highly infected US are still welcome in Ontario.
Given the absence of stronger measures, we will see a continued exponential increase of cases. Below are three projections. The green one is based on the doubling of cases every two days used on Tomas Payo’s work when looking at the early countries’ progression before strong containment. In this case, the number of cases could reach 136 000 in 3 weeks, April 7th.
The yellow curve is using a slightly more hopeful hypothesis, that of the current rate of growth of 200 % every 4 days. In this scenario, Ontario would only have 43 000 cases by April 7th. With continued influx from the US, this is most likely wishful thinking but I thought I’d provide some hope still.
Adding in a third projection March 22nd, after voluntary containment started in Toronto for many and on essential travel from the US was halted, we get a projected 14 150 cases by April 7th. The curve will flatten out even more, as we take testing and selective isolation measures for those who are sick as well as rethink how we live and work.
No need for this, its been acted upon: I say, like all other medical experts, its time to bite the bullet now and close off the border with a United States Trump is leading to disaster, with 4 460 cases to date, and enforce stricter quarantine and isolation measures for all, while testing all those who are fragile and still working.
Measures to rethink how we live and work are most needed, to avoid a total economic halt while protecting people. This was the petition to lock down Canada and Ontario (on Change.org) : http://chng.it/mrTrvwNmPj